Addressing post-transition fragility in Somalia: Imperatives for change through the New Deal - Hoofdinhoud

In September 2012, a new chapter was opened for Somalia with the end of 12 years of transitional administration and the formation of a new federal government. The end of the transitional period, characterised by a change in leadership and the swearing-in of a new legislative assembly, was met with uncharacteristic optimism for stability and recovery in Somalia. The sense of positivity is largely based on the reinvigoration of international support for Somalia and the new federal government, in particular. Unfortunately, the complex reality of Somalia is that the pockets of relative stability are not echoed throughout the country.

The fledgling Somali federal government faces significant challenges in the short-term upon which its long- term success or failure will be measured. It is a matter of less than 3 years in which this government will need to prove itself able to creating some form of inclusive political dialogue as the basis for finalising a constitution, dividing power within a federal system and hosting a legitimate election. It is a matter of less than 3 years in which the survival of the government will be based on their ability not only to extend security across the vast territory but on their ability to address political, economic and social grievances intricately tied to the corrosive political economy that has flourished in the absence of the state. Creating political stability in Somalia is further challenged by the environment of insecurity with a myriad of armed non-state actors in operation, widespread poverty and under-development and vast humanitarian needs. Somalia is a front line in an insecure globalised world with intense internal and external politico-security and economic interests resulting in a messy playing field in which alliances are fluid and impacts are widely dispersed.

It is within this context that international and national stakeholders have come together to forge a new relationship for stability in Somalia within the framework of the New Deal. The New Deal for Engagement in Fragile States has evolved from within international aid effectiveness debates to form the basis of international support for countries emerging from instability. On 16 September 2013, the federal government and international partners reached agreement on a compact to guide relations providing for common goals, mechanisms for dialogue and aid coordination and aid delivery instruments.

The Institute for Security Studies (South Africa) and the Conflict Research Unit at Clingendael are hosting a joint seminar to discuss Somalia and the prospects for change at this time. The seminar will outline key elements of post-transition fragility in Somalia and the challenges facing the federal government in the short-term. It also seeks to consider how much change can be addressed through the New Deal and what issue should be prioritised.

Speaker

Andrews Atta-Asamoah, Senior Researcher, Institute for Security Studies, South Africa

Respondent

Lauren Hutton, Research Fellow Security and Justice, Conflict Research Unit, Clingendael Institute

RSVP Karin van Egmond