First Conference of the ESCB Macroprudential Research (MaRs) Network, Frankfurt am Main - Parlementaire monitor

Parlementaire monitor
Dinsdag 7 april 2020

First Conference of the ESCB Macroprudential Research (MaRs) Network, Frankfurt am Main

Frankfurt, Duitsland
© Anton Bussemaker
datum 5 oktober 2011 - 6 oktober 2011
plaats Frankfurt am Main, Duitsland
aanwezigen J.-C. (Jean-Claude) Trichet i e.a.
organisatie Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) i

Wednesday, 5 and Thursday, 6 October 2011 Frankfurt am Main

Wednesday, 5 October 2011


8.15 a.m. - 8.45 a.m.


8.30 a.m. - 9 a.m.

Welcome coffee

9 a.m. - 9.15 a.m.

Opening remarks

Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank

9.15 a.m. - 10.30 a.m.

Session 1

Financial Instability and the Macroeconomy

Chair: Philipp Hartmann, European Central Bank

Paper I

Bubbles, Banks and Financial Stability

by Kosuke Aoki*, University of Tokyo and Kalin Nikolov, European Central Bank


Paper 2

Financial Crises, Credit Booms and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons

by Oscar Jordá, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Moritz Schularick*, Freie Universität Berlin and Alan M.Taylor, Morgan Stanley

Paper [1.23 MB]

Discussant: Jaume Ventura, Pompeu Fabra University and CREI

General discussion

10.30 a.m. - 10.45 a.m.

Coffee break

10.45 a.m. - 12 p.m.

Session II

Leverage Cycles and Macro-Financial linkages

Chair: Xavier Freixas, Pompeu Fabra University

Paper 1

Asymmetric Information in Credit Markets, Bank Leverage Cycles and Macroeconomic Dynamics

by Ansgar Rannenberg*, Nationale Bank van België/Banque Nationale de Belgique

Paper 2

Leverage, Balance Sheet Size and Wholesale Funding

by H. Evren Damar, Césaire A. Meh and Yaz Terajima*, Bank of Canada


Discussant: Luc Laeven, International Monetary Fund General discussion

12 p.m. - 12.50 p.m.

Keynote Address on Policy more

Vítor Constâncio, European Central Bank

12.50 p.m. - 2 p.m.


2 p.m. - 3.50 p.m.

Session III

Macro-Prudential Policy

Chair: Laurent Clerc, Banque de France

Paper 1

Leaning Against Boom-bust Cycles in Credit and Housing Prices

by Luisa Lambertini, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, College of Management, Caterina Mendicino*, Banco de Portugal and Maria Teresa Punzi, University of Nottingham

Paper 2

Macro-prudential Policy and the Conduct of Monetary Policy

by Denis Beau, Laurent Clerc* and Benoît Mojon, Banque de France


Paper 3

Financial Regulation in General Equilibrium

by Charles A.E. Goodhart, London School of Economics, Anil Kashyap, University of Chicago, Dimitrios P. Tsomocos*, University of Oxford and Alexandros P. Vardoulakis*, Banque de France

Discussant: David Aikman, Bank of England

General discussion

3.50 p.m. - 4.05 p.m.

Coffee break

4.05 p.m. - 5 p.m.

Keynote Address on Research

Marcus Brunnermeier, Princeton University

5 p.m. - 6.15 p.m.

Session IV:

Contagion Risk

Chair: Paolo Angelini, Banca d’Italia

Paper 1

Contagion at the Interbank Market with Stochastic LGD

by Christoph Memmel, Deutsche Bundesbank, Angelika Sachs*, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Munich and Ingrid Stein, Deutsche Bundesbank


Paper 2

Funding Costs and Loan Pricing by Multinational Bank Affiliates

by Alexis Derviz* and Marie Raková, Ceská národní banka

Paper [1.11 MB]

Discussant: Morten Bech, Bank of International Settlements

General discussion

8 p.m.


Thursday, 6 October 2011


8.30 a.m. - 9 a.m.


9 a.m. - 10.15 a.m.

Session V

Financial Stability Indicators

Chair: Katerina Šmídková, Ceská národní banka

Paper 1

A Financial Systemic Stress Index for Greece

by Dimitrios P. Louzis and Angelos T. Vouldis*, Bank of Greece


Paper 2

Mapping the State of Financial Stability

by Peter Sarlin*, Ĺbo Akademi University and Tuomas A. Peltonen, European Central Bank

Paper [1.64 MB]

Discussant: John Theal, Banque centrale du Luxembourg

General discussion

10.15 a.m. - 11.10 a.m.

Keynote Address on Research

Jean-Charles Rochet, Universität Zürich

11.10 a.m. - 11.25 a.m.

Coffee break

11.25 a.m. - 1.15 p.m.

Session VI

Early Warning Models

Chair: Carsten Detken, European Central Bank

Paper 1

Early Warning Indicators of Economic Crises: Evidence from a Panel of 40 Developed Countries

by Jan Babecký,Tomáš Havránek*, Jakub Mateju, Marek Rusnák, Katerina Šmídková and Borek Vašícek, Ceská národní banka

Paper [1.42 MB]

Paper 2

Predicting Recession Probabilities with Financial Variables over Multiple Horizons

by Fabio Fornari* andWolfgang Lemke*, European Central Bank

Paper [1.18 MB]

Paper 3

Business Cycles, Monetary Transmission and Shocks to Financial Stability

by Kim Abildgren*, Danmarks Nationalbank


Discussant: Ray Barrell, Brunel University

General discussion

1.15 p.m. - 1.20 p.m.

Closing Session

1.20 p.m. - 2.30 p.m.


General Information


Seminar dates

Wednesday, 5 October 2011 - Thursday, 6 October 2011

Seminar location

European Central Bank

Eurotower - conference room CIV

Kaiserstrasse 29

60311 Frankfurt am Main


Tel.: +49 69 1344 0

Fax: +49 69 1344 6000


Seminar language



Wednesday, 5 October 2011, 8 p.m.

Restaurant Siesmayer

Siesmayerstraße 59

60323 Frankfurt am Main

Tel.: +49 69 9002-9200

Organising Committee

Paolo Angelini, Laurent Clerc, Carsten Detken, Xavier Freixas, Philipp Hartmann,Angela Maddaloni, Katerina Šmídková

Contact person:

For questions regarding the logistical organisation of the workshop, please contact:

Mr Dimitrios Koukidis, Events and Protocol Team

Tel.: +49 (0)69 1344 7861

Fax: +49 (0)69 1344 5775


Ms SabineWiedemann, Financial Research Division

Tel.: +49 (0)69 1344 6436

Fax: +49 (0)69 1344 8552


For content related questions, please contact:

Ms Angela Maddaloni, Financial Research Division

Tel.: +49 (0)69 1344 8768

Fax: +49 (0)69 1344 8552


The programme may be subject to change without notice.


Europese Centrale Bank (ECB)

De Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) is verantwoordelijk voor het monetaire beleid van de Unie. De basisdoelstelling van de ECB is het handhaven van de prijsstabiliteit binnen de eurozone i en daarmee het bewaken van de koopkracht en het beheersen van de inflatie.

Met ingang van september 2014 speelt de ECB ook een rol in het toezicht op een deel van de Europese banken.


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