Overwegingen bij COM(2024)101 - Voortzetten van gecoördineerde maatregelen ter reductie van de gasvraag - Hoofdinhoud
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| dossier | COM(2024)101 - Voortzetten van gecoördineerde maatregelen ter reductie van de gasvraag. |
|---|---|
| document | COM(2024)101  |
| datum | 25 maart 2024 |
(2)Council Regulation (EU) 2022/1369 ( 2 ) was adopted in view of the gas supply crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It aims at voluntarily, and, if necessary, mandatorily reducing the Union’s gas demand, facilitating the filling of storages and ensuring better preparation against any further supply disruptions. It was adopted in view of the imminent need for the Union to react with temporary measures in a spirit of solidarity between Member States.
(3)Pursuant to Regulation (EU) 2022/1369, Member States were to use their best efforts to reduce their gas consumption by 15 %, firstly in the period from 1 August 2022 to 31 March 2023, and, after Council Regulation (EU) 2023/706 3 extended its application, in the period from 1 April 2023 and 31 March 2024. Should the voluntary demand-reduction measures prove to be insufficient in addressing the risk of a serious supply shortage, the Council, acting on a proposal from the Commission, was empowered to declare a Union alert, which would trigger a mandatory demand-reduction obligation. Member States adopted measures to reduce their respective gas demand in a spirit of solidarity that resulted in effective gas demand reductions across the Union of more than 15 %, from August 2022 to December 2023.
(4)Pursuant to Article 9 of Regulation (EU) 2022/1369, the Commission has to carry out a new review of this Regulation by 1 March 2024, in view of the general situation of gas supply to the Union and present a report on the main findings to the Council. The Commission presented the main findings of its review in its Report COM(2024) 88.
(5)In its Report COM(2024) 88 the Commission concluded that, although the gas security of supply situation has improved thanks to targeted investments and a number of measures, including demand reduction by Regulation (EU) 2022/1369, the general security of supply situation remains delicate. The global gas market remains tight and no significant improvements in global liquefaction capacities are expected before 2025-2027, while other downside risks remain that can deteriorate the current security of supply situation. It also concluded that demand reduction has significantly contributed to the phase out of circa 65 billion cubic meters (bcm) of Russian gas in 2023, primarily in the households and industries sectors. In 2023, demand reduction has been pivotal to end the winter with adequate storage levels and to provide the necessary flexibility in summer in order to meet the 90% storage obligation set by Regulation (EU) 2017/1938 of the European Parliament and of the Council 4 .
(6)Recent episodes of significant price volatility including during the summer and autumn of 2023, when prices increased by more than 50 % within a few weeks, caused by events such as the strike in Australian liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities and the disruption of the Balticconnector, show that markets remain fragile and susceptible to even relatively minor shocks regarding the demand and supply. Under such conditions, the fear that supply of natural gas would become scarce may trigger negative systemic reactions across the Union with serious repercussions on energy prices. Furthermore, due to the significant decrease in Russian pipeline gas imports over the past year, the availability of overall gas supplies to the Union has considerably decreased as compared to pre-crisis conditions. The Union has received approximately 25 bcm of Russian gas via pipelines and overall, Russian supplies accounted for only 15% of the Union’s total imports (pipeline and LNG) in 2023, compared to 45% in 2021.
(7)Due to the remaining tight supply and demand balance, gas supply disruptions can have a sizable impact on the gas and electricity prices and could cause harm to the economy of the Union, by affecting its competitiveness, and negatively impact European citizens. To that end, continued coordinated demand reduction by all Member States in a spirit of solidarity is recommended, among others to refill storage capacities in an efficient way and with minimum market disturbances, which contributes to ensuring the security of gas supply ahead of the winter of 2024-2025. Proactive, coordinated and voluntary savings reduce the risk of a negative impact that gas shortages would have on the competitiveness of industries.
(8)Since the entry into force of Regulation (EU) 2022/1369, the level of preparedness in the gas market and the Union’s security of supply have considerably improved. However, risks persist for the Union’s security of energy supply as the global situation on the gas market remains tight and as prices are still higher than pre-crisis. This is exacerbated by market volatility stemming inter alia from tense geopolitical circumstances, currently illustrated by, among others, the crisis in the Middle East and the Red Sea. Due to the supply disruptions and the tightness experienced in past months on the market, twelve Member States are still in the first or second crisis level pursuant to the common EU classification, as set out by Article 11(1) of Regulation (EU) 2017/1938.
(9)These possible difficulties for security of supply risk are exacerbated by a number of additional risks, including an end to the current gas transit agreement through Ukraine by 31 December 2024, through which ca. 14 bcm transited in 2023. Other risks are a possible rebound in Asian LNG demand that would reduce the availability of gas on the global gas market, a cold winter 2024-2025 that could lead to an increase of gas demand of up to 30 bcm, extreme weather events potentially affecting the hydropower storage and nuclear production due to low water levels, and the subsequent increase in demand for gas-fired power generation. Additional risks result from further disruptions of critical infrastructures, such as experienced with the acts of sabotage against the Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022 or the disruption of the Balticconnector pipeline in October 2023, and from the deterioration of the geopolitical environment, in particular in countries and regions relevant to Union energy security of supply, such as Ukraine and the Middle East.
(10)Global gas markets remain tight and are expected to remain so for a certain period of time. As noted by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 5 , global LNG supply grew only modestly in 2022 (by 4 %) and in 2023 (by 3 %). In its World Energy Outlook 2023 6 , the IEA expects that market balances will remain precarious in the immediate future until new LNG capacities are set to come online in the period 2025-2027.
(11)The recently adopted Directive (EU) 2023/1791 of the European Parliament and of the Council 7 and Directive (EU) 2023/2413 of the European Parliament and of the Council 8 will help to achieve the EU’s decarbonisation goals and to structurally reduce demand in the near future, in line with the COP28 Global Stocktake 9 which recognises the need to transition away from fossil fuels in the energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner. Although the measures that Member States will adopt to transpose those Directives will largely not yet be in force during the application of this Recommendation, they will contribute to a gas demand reduction in the years after transposition. Considering that important measures of the above- mentioned directives will only have to be transposed in May 2025, it is appropriate to recommend gas demand reduction for the transitional period until this transposition.
(12)Demand-reduction by Member States can contribute notably to the filling of underground storage facilities, to ensure adequate levels of security of supply for the winter 2024-2025 and to avoid perpetuating shortage in storage filling to the winter 2025-2026. Continuing to reduce gas demand will also help keep downward pressure on prices, to the benefit of the Union consumers and industrial competitiveness.
(13)The recommendation to save gas should not affect the need to adhere to Member States’ decarbonisation objectives. This Recommendation therefore should not disincentivise Member States to continue to switch from coal to gas for e.g. electricity generation in case this helps Member States achieve their decarbonisation objectives, as set out in their integrated national energy and climate plans, established under Regulation (EU) 2018/1999 of the European Parliament and of the Council 10 .
(14)The demand-reduction provisions of this Recommendation acknowledge specific national circumstances. Member States should be able to temporarily limit the recommended demand reduction target in case of such national specificities, among others, where a Member State faces an electricity crisis, as referred to in Regulation (EU) 2019/941 of the European Parliament and of the Council ( 11 ). Such a scenario could include a limitation proportional to a significantly increased use of gas for power generation, required to export significantly more electricity to a neighbouring Member State, due to exceptional circumstances, such as low hydropower or nuclear availability in the Member State concerned, or in the neighbouring Member State to which significantly more electricity is exported.